Retail investors have placed China ahead of the US AI race for the first time, according to the Q2 2026 edition of eToro’s Retail Investor Beat, a global quarterly survey tracking the investment decisions and outlooks of 11,000 retail investors across 13 countries.
The results: 47% of respondents selected China as the country best positioned to lead artificial intelligence globally, against 46% for the United States. One percentage point is well within any normal margin of variation, but the direction of travel is what investors should notice.
As FX News Group put it, the result amounts to ‘almost a statistical dead heat which seemed unthinkable two years ago.’ That framing captures the speed of the shift more than the one-point gap does.
Where China Ahead of US AI Sentiment Is Strongest
The global headline masked a lopsided regional picture. In nine of the 13 surveyed countries, including the UK, Germany, Australia, Spain, Italy, Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, more investors chose China than the United States.
The main holdout was the US itself. Among American respondents, 63% backed the US and 41% selected China, a gap that reflects a home-bias many surveys consistently find among domestic investors.
Lale Akoner, eToro’s Global Market Strategist, noted that investors still focus on major US technology and chip companies, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon among them. But she also said investors recognise China’s AI ecosystem, including Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu, alongside the country’s cloud infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities. FX News Group added that consumer applications form part of China’s perceived strengths in the survey, a dimension that goes beyond hardware and data centres.
Chinese Equities Gaining Ground in Portfolios
Sentiment is translating into actual positioning. The proportion of surveyed investors holding Chinese stocks rose from 7% in Q2 2024 to 12% in Q2 2026, according to the survey. The share who believe China will generate the strongest long-term stock market returns climbed from 24% to 29% since the fourth quarter of 2024.
Over the same period, the equivalent figure for the United States fell from 45% to 35%. That is a ten-point drop in two years, which puts the US lead over China in long-term return expectations at just six points, down from a twenty-one-point advantage.
For UK ISA and SIPP holders who have watched their US-heavy global trackers do the heavy lifting for years, this rebalancing in surveyed sentiment is worth monitoring, even if portfolios have not yet moved as fast as opinion has.
AI Enthusiasm Is Cooling, Even as the Theme Broadens
The survey also registered a cooling in AI stock optimism overall. The share of investors expecting AI-related stocks to rise fell from 55% to 44% over the past year, while those expecting declines increased from 11% to 17%. That is not capitulation, but it does suggest the reflexive bullishness that followed ChatGPT’s 2022 launch has moderated.
When asked which AI segment would generate the strongest returns over the next five years, investors spread their bets fairly evenly: 31% chose large technology platforms, 29% favoured dedicated AI-focused companies and 28% picked semiconductor firms. The near-even split suggests retail investors are no longer treating AI as a pure chip play centred on one or two names.
This broadening fits with a wider trend the eToro survey series has tracked. An earlier edition of the eToro UK Retail Investor Beat had already found investors moderating expectations around the Magnificent Seven. A Q1 2026 eToro survey found 78% of the same 11,000-strong cohort held a positive outlook for the year, suggesting the mood is cautious optimism rather than retreat. Separately, a February 2026 report covered by Fintech Global found 70% of the same surveyed group showing growing discipline and diversification in their portfolios.
The combination of softer AI enthusiasm and rising Chinese equity exposure points to a retail investor base that is distributing its AI convictions more widely, geographically and by sub-sector, rather than concentrating them. The next edition of the Retail Investor Beat, covering Q3 2026, will show whether the China-ahead reading holds or snaps back once US earnings season gives the market a fresh set of data points to work with.
