The Willem Middelkoop big reset thesis, first published as a book in 2013, is no longer a prediction: the Dutch author and asset manager says the restructuring of the global financial system is happening in real time. For investors in commodities or mining stocks, his framework has direct implications for where capital might flow next.
The Big Reset Thesis, Explained
Middelkoop’s core argument, set out in The Big Reset, is that the existing dollar-dominated monetary order is unsustainable and will eventually be replaced by a new arrangement. Crucially, The Big Reset blog’s book description frames the transition as a deal struck primarily between the United States and China, the two dominant financial powers, with gold playing a central role in whatever replaces the current system.
Middelkoop is not a fringe commentator. He has published seven books in eight languages on financial and economic topics and sits on the advisory board of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), a London-based think tank that includes central bankers and sovereign wealth fund managers among its members.
His price forecasts flow directly from the big reset thesis. Writing in the Canadian Mining Report, Middelkoop has put gold at $12,000 to $14,000 and silver at $500 as part of the reset scenario, alongside a new commodity super-cycle. Those figures are obviously well above current spot prices, and they depend entirely on his macro thesis playing out as he envisages.
The Fund Behind the Forecasts
Middelkoop is co-founder and chief investment officer of the Commodity Discovery Fund, an open-ended investment trust domiciled in the Netherlands and incepted on 1 July 2008. The fund puts his thesis to work by focusing on early-stage resource companies, primarily those listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX).
According to the Commodity Discovery Fund factsheet (data as of 30 June 2018), total portfolio assets at that point were USD 40,776,143 (EUR 36,735,264), with a 12-month portfolio turnover of 20%. More recent AUM figures are not publicly available from the fund’s filings in current search results, so that 2018 figure is the most recent auditable data point on record.
The fund’s semi-annual report for the first half of 2024 shows 50,607 participations (units) outstanding as of 30 June 2024, with Middelkoop listed as one of the managing directors of the fund manager.
On the Commodity Discovery Fund’s official website, the current allocation is described as approximately split: over half in precious metals, roughly 20% in copper equities, roughly 10% in energy, with the remainder across lithium, zinc, nickel, bitcoin, and cash. Those percentages are undated on the page and should be treated as approximate.
The TSX focus matters for UK investors because most of these companies are not household names on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). Junior miners and exploration-stage companies listed in Toronto carry a specific risk profile: high upside if a discovery is made, but frequent capital raises (new share issuances that dilute existing holders), low liquidity, and long timelines to production. Middelkoop’s fund is structured to absorb that volatility over a cycle, but retail investors approaching the sector directly face those risks without the same diversification.
The Willem Middelkoop big reset framework is essentially a bet on monetary disorder: that dollar hegemony cracks, gold re-enters the system formally, and commodity-linked assets reprice sharply upward. Whether or not that scenario unfolds on his timeline, the underlying tension between US dollar dominance and the ambitions of other large economies is a structural theme that institutional investors have been debating for years.
The near-term test for holders of gold, silver, or mining equities is whether central bank gold buying, de-dollarisation trends, and commodity supply constraints accelerate enough to sustain the current momentum in precious metals prices, well before Middelkoop’s $12,000 to $14,000 gold target ever comes into view.
