Noble Securities has lifted its XTB 2026 profit forecast by 50%, targeting PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million) for the full year, but the analyst behind the upgrade has also warned that the Warsaw-listed broker’s share price already prices in ‘many positive scenarios.’
Mateusz Chrzanowski of Noble Securities made the revision to Parkiet, a Polish financial newspaper, following a record first quarter. His previous annual estimate, published in January, stood at PLN 1 billion ($263 million).
A Track Record of Over-Optimism on Quarterly Earnings
The upgrade comes with context that investors should weigh carefully. All three of Chrzanowski’s quarterly profit estimates over the past year came in above XTB’s reported figures.
His Q3 2025 forecast of PLN 190 million ($50 million) was the furthest off. XTB’s own exchange filing for that quarter recorded consolidated EBIT of PLN 53.167 million, with revenues of PLN 375.821 million and operating costs of PLN 322.654 million. The estimate was 257% above the reported number. Low profitability per CFD lot (the revenue a broker earns on each contract-for-difference trade) and client gains on market-making trades compressed the result.
The subsequent two calls were closer. Noble forecast PLN 205 million ($53.9 million) for Q4 2025; XTB posted a preliminary PLN 180.5 million ($47.5 million). For Q1 2026, Chrzanowski expected PLN 650 million ($170.9 million); XTB reported PLN 535 million ($140.7 million), a record quarter, but still PLN 115 million below the estimate.
The pattern reflects a genuine forecasting difficulty. Profitability per CFD lot swung from PLN 152 ($40) in Q3 2025 to PLN 208 ($54.70) in Q4, then to PLN 439 ($115.50) in Q1 2026, according to company filings. A growing client base does not guarantee higher profits when unit margins move that sharply. XTB’s full-year 2025 consolidated annual report shows net profit fell 25.3% to PLN 638.894 million from PLN 855.202 million in 2024, even as the client base expanded.
Client estimates, by contrast, have been consistently close. Chrzanowski projected about 200,000 new clients ahead of Q3 2025; XTB reported almost 222,000, an 11% difference. A near-year-end estimate of 865,000 new clients for the full year matched XTB’s official count of 864,286 almost exactly, though its proximity to the reporting date limits its value as a long-range call.
XTB 2026 Profit Forecast: What the Numbers Require
Chrzanowski’s Q2 2026 estimate stands at PLN 403 million ($106 million). Adding that to XTB’s Q1 result of PLN 535 million ($140.7 million) implies first-half profit of roughly PLN 938 million ($246.7 million).
Reaching the full-year PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million) target would then require PLN 562 million ($147.8 million) across Q3 and Q4, or an average of PLN 281 million ($73.9 million) per quarter. That is a meaningful step down from the first-half run rate, and Chrzanowski has been explicit about it. ‘Two consecutive quarters with such high volatility are an anomaly,’ he said, adding that ‘recurring net profit is lower than what we will see in Q2.’
The arithmetic is built into the forecast. Elevated commodity and equity-index volatility drove the strong H1 result, and the model assumes that moderates from H2 onwards.
On clients, Chrzanowski expects 320,000 to 330,000 new additions in Q2, above XTB’s own quarterly target of 250,000 to 290,000. XTB added 370,041 in Q1 after raising marketing spending, with Germany absorbing more of the budget. Whether that pace holds into the second half matters for long-run revenue, even if quarterly profit is harder to pin down.
A separate FM Intelligence dataset estimates XTB had 851,000 active accounts in Q2 2026, down 1% from the prior quarter. Estimated monthly trading volume fell 25.7%, reducing volume per active account by 23.9%. The dataset covers account activity and volume, not revenue or the profitability of individual trades, so it neither confirms nor contradicts the PLN 403 million quarterly estimate.
The context around listed brokers has shifted. Reuters reported that CMC Markets raised its net operating income forecast for the year ending March 2027 to at least £550 million, well above its own compiled analyst consensus of £385.5 million. That upgrade followed previous guidance of £460 million to £480 million issued in June, as detailed in Finance Magnates’ analysis of CMC’s positioning. Chrzanowski cited CMC as one factor improving sentiment toward the sector.
XTB’s H1 2026 semi-annual report is scheduled for publication on 28 August 2026, according to the Warsaw Stock Exchange filing. That date will provide the first official test of whether Q2 landed near PLN 403 million or, consistent with recent history, some distance below it.
