The gold death cross signal forming on the XAU/USD daily chart sits at the centre of a collision between two forecasts that operate on completely different timescales. Gold was trading near $4,110 per ounce on 10 July 2026, down about 0.3% on the session, and the chart is closing in on its first death cross (where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day) since 2023. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, is not looking at the daily chart. He is still calling for gold at $35,000 an ounce within roughly five years.
Both views can coexist. They are simply not talking about the same clock.
Kiyosaki’s $35,000 Target and What It Actually Implies
When Kiyosaki first floated the $35,000 figure earlier this year, gold sat near $4,493 and the implied gain was roughly 680%. The price has since fallen to $4,110, so the same target now implies about 751%, more than eight times the current price. The forecast did not grow. The price shrank.
On 27 June, Kiyosaki posted that he may have picked the turn, noting gold had risen $62 since he bought the previous day. He tied the bull run to macro strategist Jim Rickards: ‘Possibly on a bull run to $35k if Jim Rickards is correct… and I think he is.’
Two days later, the tone reversed. On 29 June he wrote: ‘I was wrong. Gold still crashing! Thats real life. RD Lesson: Profuts are made when you buy… Not when you sell. I still believe gold will be $35 k in about 5-years.’ A forecaster who admits the timing is off is effectively conceding the near term belongs to price action, not the thesis.
Kiyosaki’s case rests on a systemic breakdown in fiat currencies: debt, deficits, and money-printing eventually popping what he calls the everything bubble, causing gold to re-price violently. The $35,000 figure is conditional on that collapse. No major bank forecast comes near it. The highest year-end 2026 targets on Wall Street sit around $6,000, a fraction of that climb.
What the Gold Death Cross Signal Actually Shows
Gold has spent the past month consolidating just above $4,000, a level that lines up with the March lows to form the floor of the current range. Resistance runs from roughly $4,200 into the $4,300 to $4,400 band, and inside that band the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are converging. The gold death cross signal is approaching its first trigger since 2023, and crucially, price is already trading below both lines rather than testing them from above.
The 2023 death cross reversed within weeks, which is the standing caveat. What makes the current setup more bearish is a falling trend line drawn off the March highs that cuts across near $4,200 and has rejected every rally for four straight months. Place that descending line above the flat $4,000 floor and the shape becomes a descending triangle, a pattern that tends to resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend. With the primary trend already pointing lower, the break more often comes through the floor than the ceiling.
A daily close below $4,000 would open the primary downside target of $3,440, the 100% Fibonacci extension (a projection technique that maps the full length of a prior move onto the next leg) of the 2025 advance. That sits about 16% under current spot and close to 40% below January’s record high near $5,595. A daily close back above the $4,300 to $4,400 band would neutralise the entire setup and bring the record zone back into view.
Where Wall Street Sits on Gold Right Now
The macro backdrop is doing nothing to help gold in the near term. Real Treasury yields remain elevated, and the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections trimmed rate-cut plans to a single move for 2026. A firm dollar keeps capping bounces before they mature.
Institutional targets are well above current spot but nowhere near Kiyosaki’s figure. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts gold averaging $6,000 per ounce in Q4 2026 and rising toward $6,300 by end of 2027, figures above the ‘near $5,000’ base case that had circulated earlier. Goldman Sachs revised its year-end target up to $5,400, a 10% increase from a prior target of $4,900 that it had set while expecting the Fed to hold rates flat. The World Gold Council’s Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends report flags a 5% to 20% drop in its bear case if reflation takes hold, a scenario that fits the descending triangle better than any of the bull targets.
The Goldman path is a useful illustration of how quickly institutional views can shift. Goldman had cut to $4,900 on the expectation that the Fed would sit on rates, then reversed to $5,400 as the outlook evolved. Both figures sit thousands of dollars below Kiyosaki’s call.
Kiyosaki’s direction is not the outlier. His magnitude is. Central banks are the structural reason his direction has merit: the World Gold Council’s central bank data shows net purchases of 244 tonnes in Q1 2026, above both the prior quarter and the five-year average, with the council noting that continued demand reflects confidence in gold’s role as a store of value during uncertainty. Total Q1 gold demand reached 1,231 tonnes, with the value of quarterly demand hitting a record $193 billion, driven by a 74% year-on-year jump in dollar terms alongside only modest 2% volume growth.
That structural bid keeps gold’s multi-year direction pointing higher. It does not prevent a descending triangle from resolving through $4,000 first. Watch whether gold can reclaim $4,300 on a daily close: that is the level that either cancels the death cross setup or confirms the bear case is running.
