If in September the main European markets closed with falls in an always complex month for the markets, in October they all managed to finish in the green despite the countless headwinds. In a month dominated by fears of inflation and with oil and bond yields on the rise , the European selectives have managed to rebuild despite expectations pointing to a clear slowdown in growth.
The EuroStoxx 50 ends the month at 4,250 points after advancing four tenths today, 1.47% in the week and more than 5% in October while the Ibex 35 draws the blind on the week and the month at 9,057, 7 points after rising 0.35% in the day, 1.70% since last Friday and 2.97% in the month. The Spanish index finally beats the tenacious key resistance of 9,055 points after rebounding in the last section of the session.
The week has been marked by a series of results that culminated this Friday with BBVA beating analysts’ expectations . Its rise above 7% after its accounts for the third quarter has helped the index to close positive.
Reviewing the day in Europe, the main continental squares have traded laterally and in a mixed sense. The day was marked by some GDP data for October that left France and Italy as advantageous students and Spain and especially Germany further behind . While the GDP of the Eurozone increased by 2.2% in the third quarter, inflation in the region reached 4.1% , an area with all-time highs.
In the US, the core PCE, the Fed’s favorite indicator, reached 3.6% year-on-year . Wall Street has opened in the red, also after the disappointment of Apple and Amazon’s results last night . The oscillations that took place yesterday in the bond markets afterThe president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde , came out to speak , have remained amid concerns about inflation and monetary tightening.
On the credit of October is the third quarter earnings season . Although many companies have assured that they have had to pass costs on to customers due to high inflation , especially in raw materials, it seems that there is still margin, although not excessive.
“At the moment, and not in all cases, the strength of demand is allowing many companies to defend their margins through price increases, something that we see difficult for them to continue doing in the coming months if the aforementioned problems in the chains do not subside. supply and energy prices are relaxed, “says Juan J. Fernández-Figares, from Link Securities. The good results of large European companies such as Daimler in Germany o BBVA in Spain have held the indices in a certain way this Friday.
On a technical level, Joan Cabrero, Ecotrader advisor , has not stopped insisting on the importance of the Spanish index breaking the key resistance of 9,055 points. Achieving this, says Cabrero, “we can terminate the consolidation phase that has been taking place since mid-August and may favor increases towards 9,310 points (high for the year) and later everything would point towards a probable end-of-year rally to 10,100 points. , which is where the Spanish selective was listed before the covid crash “.
Regarding the EuroStoxx 50, Cabrero continues to urge to wait for the German Dax 30 to exceed 15,815 points (it closes the month below 15,700). “As long as the main German reference does not overcome that resistance, the risks of attending a broader consolidation will not be removed, which I do not rule out that it may even lead the European stock markets to the October lows, where in general the supports that are found. They should not be lost if we want to continue trusting in a bullish final stretch of the year, “he explains.
Reviewing the values of the Ibex 35, Viscofan and BBVA take the scepter of the day, rising more than 7% and 6% respectively. Aiming at the bank of Basque origin, having closed a share above 6 euros may cause it to have an additional margin of rise of 21.7% in the short term , according to Cabrero’s analysis. At a certain distance from these values is Banco Sabadell , which does not reach 2%. On the side of the falls, Fluidra left more than 4%. CaixaBank also fell by more than 4% , and its “mediocre” results have not sat so well , in the words of Jefferies .
In the week the best value is Indra , which rises more than 9% after shooting up this Thursday when its good results were published. They are followed by ArcelorMittal, surpassing 7% and Siemens Gamesa , BBVA and Sabadell 6%. On the negative side, Fluidra pays for its falls this Friday and leaves more than 5% for the week. Repsol , which did not present bad results on Thursday and which will also increase the dividend , leaves more than 3% amid the recent drops in oil. CIE Automotive also loses more than 3%.
In the month , renewables and electricity seem to recover part of the ground lost with the government decree to lower the price of electricity bills. Solaria earns more than 19%, Acciona more than 14%, Iberdrola more than 14% and Endesa more than 11%. At the other extreme, IAG is faithful to its recent slump with the increases in oil – higher fuel prices – and the news that came from the new Delta variant in countries like the United Kingdom and more than 10% is left. They are closely followed by PharmaMar and Grifols .